The Election Commission (EC) has recently announced that they have set the nomination date for the Melaka state election on 8th November while polling will be held on 20th November. Political parties and their leadership are undoubtedly busy negotiating seat allocations and the selection of candidates from the period of this announcement by the EC until the arrival of the nomination date.
Based on previous elections, the candidate selection process is often not finalized until the night of the nomination date. This is especially true for highly competitive seats that are highly sought after by many political parties within a single coalition. This of course brings much uncertainty for the candidates and the political parties that will be contesting, oftentimes most candidates will not go into full gear of campaigning until their nomination is confirmed.
Each political coalition has its own set of criteria that they use to select which political parties will field their candidates in a particular constituency. Often time a political coalition will make the selection based on the winnability of the seat and as such the incumbent political parties are maintained to recontest the seats that they have won during the last election.
The individual political candidates and their winnability is also another factor that is often given much consideration. Senior political leaders with many experiences under their belt are often given a higher priority compared to fresh faces, a situation that normally results in a much older demographic of political candidates being fielded during elections.
Above political seniority, however, is race. In a highly fractured multiracial country like Malaysia, the racial background of a particular candidate is often regarded as more important than their seniority, experience, age, gender, personality, and even achievements. It is highly unlikely for example for a Chinese candidate to be fielded in a Malay-majority constituency and vice versa, a practice that has been adopted not just by race-based political parties but so far by all political parties in the country.
Proper selection of candidates for the coming state election in Melaka is crucial as its result will be used by political leaders to navigate their future course of action. As a three-cornered fight between Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional, and Pakatan Harapan is expected, any of the 3 coalitions that see a great reduction of their seats after the Melaka state election will attempt to avoid a three-cornered fight at a national level during the next general election.
Albeit there are many chatters and back and forth arguments between the two coalitions of Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional, the two Malay-dominated coalitions are highly expected to form an electoral partnership if Pakatan Harapan wins the most seats in this coming state election. On the flip side, if the two parties do not see a decline in seats they are likely to retain their current course of fighting it out in a three-cornered contest.
Barisan Nasional
Most political analysts have given their prediction that the split of the Malay votes will result in a landslide victory for Pakatan Harapan. However, this equation forgets to take into account the fact that the Malay votes were split in the last general election but still resulted in Barisan Nasional winning a healthy amount of seats in the state, 13 seats out of the total 28 seats. This explains why Barisan Nasional is confident that it doesn’t need to avoid a three-cornered fight that would result in the split of the Malay votes, an important voting base for the Malay-based parties that are dominant in the Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional coalition.
Barisan Nasional appears to be confident that it can return to its former glory in the state of Melaka. It is worth noting that the state of Melaka has historically been a strong supporter of the Barisan Nasional coalition. During the 13th General Election for instance the Barisan Nasional coalition was able to win 21 seats out of the total 28 seats in the state. As the loss of 8 seats for the coalition during the 14th General Election was drastic and sudden, the coalition is likely to be able to win some of those seats back.
Perikatan Nasional
The biggest losers in the three-cornered fight during the last general election were undoubtedly PAS, the Islamist party contested 25 seats and lost all of them. This time about the party is in a coalition with Bersatu, a party that contested 6 seats under the Pakatan Harapan banner and won only 2 of them. Whether Bersatu can retain the seats that it won during the last election is an important indicator to gauge the party’s future.
As Bersatu have never contested using their party flag in the state of Melaka, Gerakan not contesting at all in the state during the last election, and the disastrous result of PAS contesting using its party banner it is obvious why the coalition has decided on contesting under the Perikatan Nasional logo. The parties within Perikatan Nasional are currently banking on the popularity of Perikatan Nasional to make grounds in the state, whether this strategy will result in greater voting shares for the three parties will also be an important indicator of their strategy for the next general election to come.
Pakatan Harapan
The coalition of Pakatan Harapan seems to be set to win the coming Melaka state election. If the coalition can just retain the seats that it has won during the last general election it will be able to win a simple majority needed to form the next Melaka state government. However, this will likely again result in political instability as it would only take a handful of disgruntled state assemblymen to bring down the newly formed state government as what has happened in the recent past.
It can be argued however that the coalition is not as popular now compared to the period leading up to the last general election. The tsunami that had won them the simple majority in the state will not be so easily replicated considering that the coalition has lost its only Malay-based political party Bersatu that may have played a contributing role to the coalition winning a respectful amount of the Malay votes. The fact that the coalition’s leader has changed from Tun Mahathir Mohamad to Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim since the last general election may also result in a decline of the Malay support towards the coalition.
However, the coalition can be seen to be in a better position coming to the state election compared to its two competitors as the opposition political parties that may result in the split of the opposition votes namely Pejuang and Warisan have announced that they will not be contesting in the state election. MUDA, another political party in the opposition bloc that may split the bloc’s vote has also recently announced that they will negotiate with Pakatan Harapan in terms of seat allocation potentially bringing the coalition a lion share of the youth’s votes whilst ensuring that the votes for the opposition bloc are not split.
Conclusion
The biggest seat gainer from the upcoming Melaka state election is expected to be Barisan Nasional, the state of Melaka had always been a strong supporter of the coalition with the last general election being the sole exception. The 8 seats that have been lost to Pakatan Harapan during the last general election are unlikely to be able to be fully retained by Pakatan Harapan seeing as the coalition has lost many of its prominent and influential Malay leaders.
The instability that has ensued during the Pakatan Harapan administration that resulted in its collapse is likely to have also resulted in a trust deficit towards the coalition amongst its voters in the state. However, as mentioned the Pakatan Harapan coalition is in a much better position compared to its competitors since the Malay votes are expected to be somewhat split amongst the two Malay-dominated political coalitions. This advantageous position may result in the coalition winning just enough seats to form a simple majority in the state.
As for Perikatan Nasional, the coalition is very unlikely to win the Melaka state government given its current composition. The best outcome it can hope for is to retain its few seats and split enough of the Malay votes to result in the loss of Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Harapan. The short-term loss may be necessary for the coalition to convince Barisan Nasional that a three-cornered fight at the national level during the next general elections is disastrous for the two coalitions and that they need to come to a compromise to stop an impending Pakatan Harapan landslide victory.
It is worth noting that the political scene in the country is currently very dynamic in nature and things can rapidly change within a split second. As such, it would be a fool’s errand to attempt to accurately predict the election result even before the nomination date has passed. However, that is no excuse to forgo a comprehensive analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the different coalitions set to be contesting.
In this regard, we can learn a thing or two from one of the most famous military strategists of the past. Sun Tzu the author of “The art of war” has once famously said, “Every battle is won before it is fought”. What this simply means is that the conditions of the different armies, the terrain that they are on, and the strategies that they have decided to employ during the battle are often more important than what happens in the battle itself. The fate of the victors, as in the case of the coming Melaka state election has most likely already been decided even before the battle has officially commenced.